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一季度行情给人印象最深的是一月份连续两次触发向下熔断,以及随后的千股跌停。三月份虽有回复,但最终一季度沪深300指数还是下跌了13.75%,创业板指数下跌了17.53%。在90%的产品出现亏损的情况下,少数派5号毫发无损。很多投资者关心是如何做到的。我们通过这封信来统一答复。
股票投资的目的是能够把绝对收益长期积累起来。而不是牛市赚钱、熊市亏钱。积累绝对收益是我们唯一的目标,也是我们的投资理念。
为了绝对收益这个唯一的目标和理念,在牛市、熊市的各个阶段,在不同的市场环境下,我们却采用很多种不同的投资方法。有时需要坚守,有时需要灵活。市场每年都在变化,不要指望单一的投资方法可以包打天下。市场环境在变,投资者结构在变,上市公司在变,投资方法也要不断进化。我们坚持我们的投资理念,不断积累绝对收益是长期投资的目标。我们坚持精选个股,对上市公司的深度研究创造价值。 我们善于独立思考,利用市场情绪波动,灵活配置我们的投资。
牛市和熊市都是市场必须经历的过程。以往二十多年的投资经历,使我们摸索出了一些在熊市行之有效的投资方法。与牛市精选个股长期高仓位持有不同。在熊市中控制净值回撤的最好办法,是空仓。在熊市取得盈利的最好机会,是超跌反弹。
在2015年二季度市场的一片狂热中,我们越来越谨慎,逐步回避中小创股票,并降低整体仓位。所以在6-7月股灾1.0阶段,回撤较小。在2015年7月9日市场出现超跌反弹的时候,我们高仓位参与,净值创出新高。由于判断市场已经进入熊市阶段,在7月的反弹走弱后,我们及时空仓,回避了8月的股灾2.0。在8月25日市场连续快速下跌后,我们又参与了一次超跌反弹。虽然买在低位,但当时市场小幅反弹后,出现震荡。我们再度空仓,也错过了市场去年四季度的反弹。虽然熊市的反弹也会持续数月的时间,但不会改变市场运行的大趋势。我们面对市场压力,坚持熊市长线空仓。市场很快就进入了今年1月股灾3.0。遭遇市场连续熔断,我们却空仓而毫发无损。把宝贵的现金留到了市场低位,等到可以从容选股建仓的机会。我们在市场的大跌中保存了实力,在市场上涨的过程中才能积累收益。
经历了连续三轮股灾,目前阶段我们却变得相对乐观。市场一片悲观的时候,往往就是最好的投资机会。别人悲观的时候,我们反而可以乐观起来了。
可以想到的各种利空在三轮股灾中得到消化。宽松的货币环境,经济企稳反弹,政策面暖风频吹,主板估值不高,创业板跌幅过半,这些因素组合在一起,制约了大盘继续下行的空间,酝酿了反弹的机会。我们在三月增加了仓位,参与了一些弹性较好的品种。产品净值的波动开始加大,这是参与反弹行情必须承受的。在熊市环境提高仓位依然要非常小心。希望在熊市也可以有绝对收益。
少数派投资
2016年4月11日